Bonsoir Rafa! The King is dead! Long live the king! Uh...Wait a minute, who is next in line to the throne? I don't know - let us have a tournament of knights to determine the heir to the throne!
And so it begins. 128 enter, one remains. Many have a good claim to be named the new King of New York. However, as it usually does, it boils down to three or four who have a chance at the semis, and only a few have what it takes to win.
Pretenders
1. Anyone who has the letters USA (Used to Succeed Annually) next to their name. Don't expect any great showings. Isner will be out before the 4th round begins, and that will be the best showing by an American.''
2. All the rest of the Spanish Players, including David Ferrer. I include Ferrer because he can't beat Djokovic or Federer, so he may make the semis, but he has zero shot to go further, unless he gets divine assistance.
3. Jo-Wilifried Tsonga. Yes he won the Canadian Masters series event. Yes he beat Djokovic, Murray, and Federer along the way. He followed it up with a first round loss in Cincinnati. That is normal for Tsonga. In a three out of five set format, he loses to Djokovic, Ferrer, Murray. He might have a chance against Fed. Quarterfinalist.
4. Anyone in the top 10 not named Djokovic, Federer or Raonic. No one in the top 10 is getting by these guys. Murray is still not 100% in my opinion. He's not moving as well as he did when he won Wimbledon last year. Mauresmo thus far has not been the answer for him. Stan Wawrinka seems content now that he's won a major. He's done absolutely nothing since, and I expect that trend to continue. Berdych has an outside shot at a semi-final depending on the draw, but he's fragile in the early rounds. Don't count on him being there on Semi-final Saturday.
Contenders
Milos Raonic - He's having an incredible year is he not? A semifinalist at Wimbledon, and he's risen to #6 in the world. He's got a huge serve, and has seriously improved both his return game and his fitness, footwork, and movement. I love the fact that he says his current success is not his goal. He wants to be #1 in the world. I foresee multiple slams for him, is first coming by 2016. Could it be this year's open? If and ONLY if Federer and Djokovic lose before they would play him. If that scenario happens, look for the Canadian Cannon to win his first slam.
Roger Federer - Heck of a summer for the old man. Unfortunately all it has proven to me is he still chokes in big matches against Djokovic, and can't beat him at all in a final, and still struggles to beat anyone else in a final. He's 4 for his last 13 finals. I don't expect Federer to win, even if I think he'll make the final. And save for Fed-Raonic final, I expect him to lose to whomever he might face. Agassi won his last major at 33, at the 2003 Australian Open, but he had fewer miles on his body than fed, and was a better player later in his career.. Fed is 33 now, and is a shell of himself. I hope he wins, but I wouldn't bet a dime on him.
Novak Djokovic - Has marriage and a pregnancy changed the crazy man's perspective on life? He wins Wimbledon, gets married, and subsequently loses early in the master series hard court events. The good news is he didn't play too much leading up to the open, so his body got a nice break. He should be in tip top physical shape. Nadal isn't here, so his biggest obstacle mentally isn't here. He's got Federer's number in majors now, so he has no fear of a "hot" Roger. Plus he knows he's got celebratory crack courtesy of Boris Becker should he hoist his second Us Open trophy. (This is called historical sarcasm) Should he avoid an early upset, he should win the title. Prediction: Champion.
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For the women, I will make this brief. There are really four women who can win the title this year:
1. Simone Halep - She has the game, but does she have the belief? If she can get a win vs Sharapova, having lost in 3 sets the last few times they've played, I like her chances.
2. Maria Sharapova - Se won the french, but fizzled out early at Wimbledon. She has never won two majors in the same year. Will she buck the trend? Not if she plays Serena Williams, who has beaten her 14 times in a row. There's no overcoming that for Sharapova, save an on court coaching visit from Tonya Harding. Check her coaches' box Serena!
3. Eugenie Bouchard - The girl doesn't do very much unless it's a major. She has been the most consisten player in the slams this year, having reached the semi-finals of the Australian and French Opens, and the final of Wimbledon. Her hard court prep leading in the Open doesn't lend me to be super excited about her chances, but even I can see she trains to peak at the slams, not win the tune-ups. I expect a semi-final.
4. Serena Williams - As long as she's playing, you have to go with her. Though she's had a terrible year by her standards, her hard court tune-ups after Wimbledon has produced much improved results. Her serve looks to be getting back to the weapon we all expect from her, and if that's the case, just write her name on the trophy now. When Serena says she has no pressure, it means she's put in an enormous amount of extra work in order to win a slam, and she wants it badly. I remember her saying she had no pressure in 2007 before the Australian open, when her ranking had dropped to 81 in the world due to injury and lack of play. She dominated the tournament, and the final against the reigning US Open Champion Maria Sharapova 6-1, 6-2. I see a similar result. Prediction: Champion
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