French Open Preview - What To Watch For

The French Open begins next Monday.  The dirt slam offers viewers longer points, and challenges the endurance and anaerobic fitness of the players the most of any major.  Before you begin enjoying the top level tennis for two weeks, let me give you some key factors that may help you accurately predict a winner during a given match, as well as the winner of both the Men's and Women's Draws.

First Serve % - At the French, the first serve percentage of the players is more critical to success than at any other major.  The more second serves an opponent sees on a high bouncing slow court, the more likely the server will be on the defensive from the first strike.  Getting more first serves in means starting the point either on the offensive or at least neutral. The player with the higher first serve percentage, all other things relatively equal, will usually win.

Average Length of Rally - By paying attention to this stat, you can immediately see if a big serving, ultra aggressive player - like a Milos Raonic or John Isner - has any chance to win a round in a 3 out of 5 set match.  This stat is even important for Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova. For these types of players, the average length of rally must be less than 5 balls.  These players are not anaerobically fit enough (ala Nadal, Errani) to maintain a high level of play over the course of the match if the rally lasts more than five balls.  These players must be aggressive early and try to end the points as quickly as possible, or they can be ground into the clay by counter punching specialists.  Conversely players like Nadal, Ferrer, Radwanska want long points if they are going to succeed. The one loss Nadal suffered at the French at the hands of Robin Soderling in 2009 was due to Soderling ending the points quickly early in the rally, going for broke.

Drop shots  - The drop shot is a fantastic weapon that is used more often on clay than any other surface.  If you see a player being successful with the drop shot in a match, it is a good bet they are dominating the rallies. This is a player to consider picking to win.

Defensive Prowess - Does a player, when pulled wide off the court, go for a winner or do they respond with a high loopy ball or squash shot down the middle to try to neutralize the point and make their opponent hit yet another shot? Clay rewards patience and defensive tennis, so the players doing more defensive work (attempting to lengthen the rallies rather than win the rally) when stressed are usually more successful.

Rain - This is the only major that will play matches in the rain (to a degree). This is an important factor because the more water on the court, the slower the court.  This gives defensive players and players with better anaerobic fitness even more of an advantage. Damper courts, being slower, helps kill the pace of big servers, and will lengthen the rallies as it is easier to run a slower ball down.  The balls also get damp in the rain, which slows them down.  Aggressive players will be at more of a disadvantage in these conditions.

Conversely, if it does not rain and it is hot and sunny, the court conditions will be drier, speeding up the court. This will give big servers and hitters a better chance to hit through the court and shorten the points.

Nadal Has Not Lost a Match At The French When Not Injured - He's 60-1 all time at Roland Garros for a reason. His one loss saw him nursing a sore knee.


For Batman: The Dark Knight Rises Fans - Nadal as Bane : "Oh, you think the clay is your ally, but you merely adopted the dirt. I was born in it, molded by it. I didn’t see the grass and cement until I was already a man; by then, it was nothing to me but trivial! The earth-courts betray you, because they belong to me. I will show you where I have made my home, whilst preparing to bring dominance. Then, I will break you. Your precious unforced errors, gratefully accepted. I will need them. Ah yes, I was wondering what would break first. Your spirit, or your body."

 Pick someone else at your own peril.

This Is The One Major a Woman Not Named Serena Has A Better Chance Than Serena To Win. History says Serena won't win this year. Yes, she won last year, but it was 11 years since her previous victory. This is the event Serena more often than not will suffer an early exit, or a major upset. She must be "on" ending the points quickly in EVERY match if she's going to win again. If you're a betting person, take the field. The field is 10-2 over the last 12.  There is a reason - the court is not a good fit for Serena's game.