At every level of league tennis, including the upper levels of 4.5 and 5.0, there are three statistics that are the most influential in predicting the winner of the match:
#1 First Serve pct
#2 Double Faults
#3 Return of Serve %
In almost every case, the team that performs the best in these three categories will win the match. They are equally important. Let me use one of my recent matches as a prime example
Sunday afternoon, I played a doubles match in which my partner and I won by the score of 6-4, 6-2. It was essentially a 9.0 level match, though it was not for league. During the match, my partner and I each double faulted once. Our opponents, on the other hand double faulted a minimum of 4 times ( I think it was 5, but I could be wrong). The first serve pct of myself and my male counterpart was essentially the same - I would estimate around 70-75%. The female players however had a statistically significant difference of about 10 percentage points, with my partner having the better day. The biggest difference between the two teams came on return of serve pct. In 9 return games, I missed 3 returns total, my partner missed 10, our team total of 13. Our opponents missed approximately 20 serve returns.
How do we examine all of this? My partner and I won all three of the important categories. We essentially gave our opponents 3 games worth of points missing returns, and they gave us 5. We gave them two points on double faults and they gave us a game. So simply looking at errors made in starting the point, our opponents gave us 6 games worth of points without us have to play a single ball, while we only gave them 3. That works out to a 6-3 set victory for me and my partner. That's tough to overcome in the remainder of the points where you would anticipate a smaller margin of victory for one side or the other.
Where the 1st serve percentage affects the remainder of the points, is a player or team is always going to be more likely to lose a point if they have to play after their second serve. Look at the pro tour, the statistics bear out. You are always more likely to win a point if you get your first serve in. So because my partner and I had a higher percentage of first serves then our opponents, we were able to play more points than they did without duress. That is a very important advantage.
From the tactical perspective my partner and I tried exactly 1 return cross court. This is because the down the line return is a low percentage return, and will result in more errors.
The most important tactic in doubles is to MAKE YOUR OPPONENTS PLAY THE BALL! In any tennis match, be it singles or doubles, you are going to win the vast vast majority of the points because your opponents make errors. Statistically speaking, you win only a very finite, small number of points by hitting winners. Though winners feel great, they aren't all that important when it comes to winning and losing. It is far more important to give your opponents opportunities to make errors. In every match I play, this is the strategy. Now, I of course am not looking to set my opponents up with sitters at the net. On return of serve I chip the return to the corner of the Ad service box closest to the alley, regardless if they're coming in or not. Sometimes I miss my target, but not by very much. I play within myself at all times. Going for winners on the return is not smart to begin with in doubles, but it also is not a part of my game. On the serve I target the weaker wing of each player, and hit a 3/4 pace serve or a kick serve in order to achieve my high percentage.
In matches between evenly matched players, look no further than the serve and return statistics, and see who is starting the points better. This will undoubtedly illustrate who won and will clearly show why the winner won. All post serve and post return tactics become irrelevant if you cannot start the point with your serve and your return of serve. You may have a great forehand, or a great volley, but you'll never get a chance to use it if you and your doubles partner double fault or miss your serve returns. And if you aren't making your 1st serve, your opponents will always be in charge of the point if they get the return in.
So, go out there and make your next few opponents have to play more points after the serve and return than they every have before. You may find you win more matches.
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